Weather Forecast For Mon 09 Jan, 2006

PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

PRECIPITATION
Mostly cloudy leading to isolated light rain/light snow during night.

TEMPERATURES
Maximum 08 to 12 °C in low lying areas, 12°C in Muzaffarabad, 06 to 08°C over the foothills of the Karakorum.

Minimum -2 to 00°C in plain areas over/around Islamabad, - 1°C in Muzaffarabad, but as low as -4 to -10°C in the highest villages.

WIND
Strong wind all day..

Weather Forecast For Sun 08 Jan, 2006

PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

PRECIPITATION
Good sunshine at morning, high clouds approaching during afternoon.

TEMPERATURES Maximum 10 to 14 °C in low lying areas, 14°C in Muzaffarabad, 08 to 12°C over the foothills of the Karakorum.

Minimum -4 to -2°C in plain areas over/around Islamabad, - 2°C in Muzaffarabad, but as low as -6 to -14°C in the highest villages.

WIND
Mostly windy, high wind chill all evening/night..

Weather Forecast of Main Cities for Thursday

Weather Forecast of Main Cities for Thursday

Weather Forecast For Sat 07 Jan, 2006

PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

PRECIPITATION
Good sunshine all day with some high clouds at times.

TEMPERATURES
Maximum 10 to 14 °C in low lying areas, 14°C in Muzaffarabad, 08 to 12°C over the foothills of the Karakorum.

Minimum -4 to -2°C in plain areas over/around Islamabad, - 2°C in Muzaffarabad, but as low as -5 to -13°C in the highest villages.

WIND
Strong wind all day..

Weather Forecast For Fri 06 Jan, 2006

PRECIPITATION
Partly cloudy with isolated local buildups during afternoon.

TEMPERATURES
Maximum 10 to 12 °C in low lying areas, 12°C in Muzaffarabad, 08 to 10°C over the foothills of the Karakorum.

Minimum -4 to -2°C in plain areas over/around Islamabad, - 2°C in Muzaffarabad, but as low as -6 to -13°C in the highest villages.

WIND
Mostly windy, high wind chill all evening/night..

Help peoples

Help poor peoples

Weather Forecast For Thu 05 Jan, 2006

PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

PRECIPITATION
Partly cloudy with increasing clouds at evening/night.

TEMPERATURES
Maximum 10 to 12 °C in low lying areas, 12°C in Muzaffarabad, 08 to 10°C over the foothills of the Karakorum.

Minimum -4 to -2°C in plain areas over/around Islamabad, - 1°C in Muzaffarabad, but as low as -6 to -16°C in the highest villages.

WIND
Mostly windy, high wind chill all evening/night..

Weather Forecast For Wed 04 Jan, 2006

PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

PRECIPITATION
Partly cloudy with dying out rain/snow giving sunshine windows.

TEMPERATURES
Maximum 08 to 12 °C in low lying areas, 10°C in Muzaffarabad, 06 to 08°C over the foothills of the Karakorum.
Minimum -2 to 00°C in plain areas over/around Islamabad, - 1°C in Muzaffarabad, but as low as -4 to -14°C in the highest villages.

WIND
Mostly windy, high wind chill all evening/night.

More rain, snow buffet quake zone

MUZAFFARABAD: Heavy rain and snow buffeted the earthquake-hit areas for a second day , adding to the misery of millions of survivors camped out in tents and crude shelters, as doctors reported increasing respiratory infections among survivors.

Poor visibility forced a suspension of flights by helicopters from the UN, foreign militaries and the Pakistan Army, which have been delivering winterised tents, clothes, food and other provisions to survivors.

There were conflicting reports about major roads leading to Muzaffarabad. Nasir said they remained open, but aid workers said they were either blocked or hazardous. A road to Chakothi, on the Line of Control, was blocked by a landslide about 15 kms from Muzaffarabad, according to reports.

The UN deputy humanitarian coordinator, said that the harsh weather had forced 100 families to move from the mountains to a Mira camp near Battagram in the NWFP on Sunday. He said tents were damp, and aid workers were distributing high-protein foods and warm clothes to children. "It’s what we have been fearing all along," he told foreign news agency.

Azad Kashmir and the north-western parts of the country have had least two feet of snow since Saturday evening. The Met Office forecast more, with strong, chilly winds and subfreezing temperatures over the next few days. Met office official Muhammad Aslam said rain and widespread heavy snow was expected until Saturday. Temperatures will likely dip to -6 degrees Celsius in the plains, and to -14 degrees Celsius in the mountains, the Met Office said.

Heavy snow fell across high ground and rain drenched valleys overnight, triggering some tent collapses and landslides but the military, coordinating a huge relief effort with aid groups, said there had been no reports of major incidents.

More than two million people have been camping out since the quake in tents or flimsy shelters built in the rubble of their homes. They said heavy snow had brought down tents in the remote, high-altitude Allai Valley as well as in some parts of Azad Kashmir.

5 Day Weather Outlook for Kashmir

All heights in FT above MSL. Temperatures in Celsius. Time standard UTC.
Date: 30 December 2005
Today 30 December: Generally cloudy with isolated outbreaks of rain or showers, mainly in the
north, with snow on ground above about 5000 FT giving locally slight new accumulations. Local
dense smoke haze around urban areas morning and night. Wind variable, mostly light, but locally
moderate down mountain valleys at night.
Muzaffarabad: Max 12 C Min PS 04 C

Saturday 31 December: Cloudy with outbreaks of rain, with snow on ground above about 5000
FT, the precipitation locally heavy at times. Slight to moderate, isolated heavy, new accumulations
of snow likely. Local dense smoke haze around urban areas morning and night. Wind variable,
mostly light, but locally moderate down mountain valleys at night.
Muzaffarabad: Max 10 C Min PS 04 C

Sunday 01 January: Widespread rain (snow on ground above about 5000 FT), heavy at times.
Moderate to heavy new accumulations of snow expected. Local dense smoke haze around urban
areas morning and night. Wind variable, mostly light, but locally moderate down mountain valleys
at night.
Muzaffarabad: Max 10 C Min PS 05 C

Monday 02 January: Widespread rain (snow on ground above about 5000 FT), heavy at first but
becoming patchy and mainly light overnight. Local moderate to heavy new accumulations of snow
expected. Local dense smoke haze around urban areas morning and night. Wind variable, mostly
light, but locally moderate down mountain valleys at night.
Muzaffarabad: Max 07 C Min PS 02 C

Tuesday 03 January: Isolated showers, mainly in the north, of snow above about 5000 FT, giving
slight new accumulations. Local dense smoke haze around urban areas morning and night. Wind
variable, mostly light, but locally moderate down mountain valleys at night.
Muzaffarabad: Max 05 C Min MS 01 C

Wednesday 04 January: Isolated becoming occasional showers, of snow above about 5000 FT,
giving local moderate new accumulations. Local dense smoke haze around urban areas morning
and night. Wind variable, mostly light, but locally moderate down mountain valleys at night.
Muzaffarabad: Max 03 C Min MS 04 C

Issued at: 300010 Z By the Chief Fore

Snow fall in Earthquake Affected Area

Meteorological Service of Pakistan

Snowfall has already been reported from isolated places in calamity-hit areas of Pakistan during the last decade of October. Initial overview of the regional and global parameters indicates that another harsh winter is approaching the earthquake stricken areas. Snowfall is expected to exceed considerably above the normal range both in terms of frequency of occurrence and amount. As such, the temperatures are likely to range well below normal. General winter outlook especially in mountainous earthquake affected areas is presented in the following table for an area within the radius of 80km around the epicenter (Muzaffarabad).


S.No.Area Expected Snowfall (ft) Expected Lowest Night Temperature (°C)
Nov Dec Jan Feb Nov Dec Jan Feb
1 North of 1 7 10 7 -4 -7 -10 -6
Epicenter
2 Around 1 5 8 5 -3 -6 -9 -4
Epicenter
3 South of 0.5 3 7 4 -2 -5 -8 -4
Epicenter

In December, January and February, even the day temperatures are likely to stay several degrees below freezing especially in mountainous areas and during January lowest minimum temperatures usually drop as low as -20s degree Celsius. The landslides and foggy weather in winter may be another factor affecting the human survival in these areas.


Meteorological Service of Pakistan

MISERY FOR SURVIVORS

The bad weather had been expected since early December but held off, allowing more supplies of shelter, bedding, food and medical supplies to be flown and trucked up into the mountains.

Misery in Pakistan quake zone as snow grounds relief

MUZAFFARABAD, Pakistan, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Rain and snow fell across Pakistan's earthquake zone for a second straight day on Monday, grounding relief flights and adding to the misery of millions of survivors camped out in tents and crude shelters.
Heavy snow fell across high ground and rain drenched valleys overnight, triggering some tent collapses and landslides but the military, coordinating a huge relief effort with aid groups, said there had been no reports of major incidents.
"There has been no unpleasant news regarding any accidents," said Major Farooq Nasir, a military spokesman in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani Kashmir.

Snowfall in Earthquake Areas

Kashmiri earthquake survivors walk in the snow near in the devastated village of Neelum Valley, north of Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, January 2, 2006. Rain and snow fell across Pakistan's earthquake zone for a second straight day on Monday, grounding relief flights and adding to the misery of millions of survivors camped out in tents and crude shelters. BEST QUALITY AVAILABLE REUTERS/STR/PAKISTAN

Earthquake in Pakistan

Learning from Earthquakes

First Report on the Kashmir Earthquake of October 8, 2005

Overview
On October 8, 2005, at 08:50 am local time, a Mw7.6 earthquake struck the Kashmiri region of Paki-stan and India, causing widespread destruction in Pakistan’s Azad Jum-mu and Kashmir (AJK) and North-west Frontier Provinces (NWFP), and in India’s western and southern Kashmir—an area of 30,000 km2(see Figure 1). This was the dead-liest earthquake in the recent his-tory of the sub-continent, with more than 80,000 fatalities, 200,000 peo-ple injured, and more than 4 million people left homeless.

The epicenter of the main earth-quake was located at latitude 34° 29′ 35″ N and longitude 73° 37′ 44″ E, and the focal depth was determined to be 26 km (USGS). The main shock was followed by
more than 978 aftershocks of mag-nitude Mw 4.0 and above, until October 27, 2005. This earthquake is associated with the known sub-duction zone of an active thrust fault in the area where the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates are collid-ing and moving northward at a rate of40 mm/yr, giving rise to the Himalay-an mountain ranges. Almost all thebuildings—mainly stone and block masonry laid in cement sand mor-tar—collapsed in areas close to the
epicenter. Up to 25 km from the epi-center, nearly 25% of the buildings collapsed, and 50% of the buildings were severely damaged.

The major affected towns in Pakistan were Muzaffarabad, Bagh, Rawlakot and Balakot. In addition, Islamabad, Shinkiari, Batagram, Mansehra, Abbotabad, and Murree were dam-aged. Initial rescue and relief efforts were hampered by the mountainous terrain, bad weather, and damaged or collapsed infrastructure.

Government agencies and NGOs are racing against the weather to deliver relief supplies and temporary housing to remote areas before winter sets in. Several EERI members visited the region shortly after the earthquake and sent back initial reports.
PAKISTAN
Authors contributing to this section were Dr. A. Naeem, Dr. Qaisar Ali, Muhammad Javed, Zakir Hussain, Amjad Naseer, Syed Muhammad Ali, Irshad Ahmed, and Muhammad Ashraf of the Earthquake Engineer-ing Center in the Department of
Civil Engineering, N-W.F.P. Univer-sity of Engineering and Technology (UET), Peshawar, Pakistan, and Charles Scawthorn of Kyoto Univer-sity, Japan. The publication of thisreport is funded by EERI’s Learning from Earthquakes Program, under National Science Foundation grant # CMS-0131895.

The epicentral area is a very rug-ged mountainous area with deep narrow valleys and relief of 5,000 or more feet and slopes of 45-50 de-grees. A large number of smaller settlements and houses are on valley walls, right up to ridge tops. Muzaffarabad—about 10 km south-west of the epicenter—is the largest city in the region, with a population of about 200,000, and was severely damaged (see Figure 2). Pakistan reports more than 72,000 people dead, and 2.8 million displaced.
Ground Motions
Shaking intensity: Based on obser-vations of buildings and infrastruc-ture, team members estimate MMI
X+ in Balakot, MMI VIII-IX in Muzaf-farabad, and MMI VII-VIII in other locations south of Muzaffarabad.
Liquefaction: None was observed, and it doesn’t appear to have oc-curred to any significant degree, probably due to a low water table in this arid region, as well as to alluvial deposits being generally coarsely
graded (due to steepness of stream beds).

Landslides: There were numerous
landslides, generally minor to moder-
ate but massive in some instances, causing some deaths and injuries and blocking roads. A dramatic but surficial landslide occurred on the moutainside to the north of Muzaffarabad (Figure 3). It should be noted there was evidence of similar pre-earthquake slides in the same area.
A massive landslide about 40 km SE of the epicenter appears to be a failure of an entire valley wall perhaps 5,000 feet high (Figure 4).
Debris flowed down and across thevalley, damming it with a crest ap-proximately 2 km in length. The scale of this slide is analogous to the 1959 Hebgen Lake (Montana)
slide. The slide warrants further investigation.